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08 April 2014 @ 09:00 am
euanmearns.com: Global Oil Supply Update July 2013  
January 3, 2014 by
- Global conventional crude oil and condensate production has been following a bumpy plateau just over 73 million barrels per day since May 2005.

- All growth in liquids supply since May 2005 has come from natural gas liquids (NGL), unconventional oil and biofuels which together with refinery gains now amount to 17.4 million barrel per day providing a total global liquids supply of 90 million barrels per day.

- The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) provides the most comprehensive and readily accessible oil supply data, but owing to budget cuts, is behind in compiling and publishing statistics. The most recent data are for July 2013.

Figure 1 Global crude oil + condensate (C+C) production as reported by the EIA [1] less Canadian syncrude [2] (oil sands) and N American light tight oil [3, 4] (Bakken and Eagleford). Chart not zero scaled. Note how conventional C+C production (blue) rose to 73 million barrels per day in May 2005 but has since been following a bumpy plateau. It remains to be seen if 73 million barrels per day will emerge as the peak in cheap conventional oil production. All growth in global liquids supplies has come from unconventional oil, biofuel and natural gas liquids (Figures 2 and 3).

Figure 2 Global total liquids production now stands at 90.2 million barrels per day [1]. Since May 2005, all growth in liquids production has come from NGL, unconventional oil and bio fuel (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Global liquids excluding conventional crude and condensate. Note that the energy content of NGL is about 70% of crude oil and that significant energy is required to produce syncrude from oil sands and to produce biofuels. Refinery gains represent volume expansion of liquids during the refining process.

Figure 4 Natural gas liquids represent the C2 to C6 fraction that condenses from natural gas production in pipelines or separated from methane in gas process plant. The red line is a ratio between NGL and global gas production [5] and shows that NGL production has simply grown in lock step with global gas production.

Figure 5 The EIA have not updated their biofuel production statistics since January 2012. In figures 2 and 3 the 2011 value has been extrapolated through 2012 and 2013.


1. The Energy Information Agency (EIA)

2. Statistics Canada

3. North Dakota Drilling and Production Statistics

4. Texas Railroad Commission

5. BP 2013
Lex_Divinalex_divina on April 8th, 2014 07:42 am (UTC)
Интересные графики, спасибо (хотя не совсем понятно, зачем было обозначать на них как shale ту нефть, которая по сути tight). Хорошо видно, что добыча конвенционной нефти вышла на полку ещё в 2005 (т.е. за два года до начала рецессии в США), и наблюдающиеся с того времени косметические 0,3% общего прироста в год обеспечиваются нетрадиционными источниками и поскребанием сусеков.
iv_g on April 9th, 2014 06:51 am (UTC)
shale - это уже бренд, он даже звучит лучше по сравнению с tight :)