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Figure 1 OPEC spare production capacity according the IEA Oil Market Reports. Spare capacity is higher than the supply crisis years of the mid-2000s, but is still wafer thin compared to anticipated growth in crude oil demand. Data to November 2013.
Figure 2 OPEC oil production + spare capacity has been on a plateau of around 35 Mbpd since 2009. It is not clear that OPEC countries have the appetite for the massive investment required to build capacity from these levels.
Figure 3 Saudi Arabia has built new capacity since 2008 with the development of the Khurais and Manifa oil fields that combined add 2.1 Mbpd new production capacity. These were the last two giant undeveloped oil fields in Saudi Arabia.
Figure 4 Iraq had successfully built production from 2.5 to > 3 Mbpd by early 2013. Bur recent violence, that seems to be spreading, and disagreements with the IOCs over Kurdistan has seen production fall back sharply.
Figure 5 sanctions have not had such a dramatic effect on Iranian production as many believe. With the ending of sanctions, Iranian production will increase by < 1 Mbpd.
Figure 6 A new round of civil unrest in Libya has seen production fall dramatically. The IEA has taken the view that this is temporary, offsetting lost production with a gain in spare capacity.
Figure 7 Angola total capacity is falling. I am unsure how many new fields Angola has to develop. But with deepwater offshore oil it seems likely that Angola may one day soon go the same way as the North Sea with 10% per annum annual declines.
All data comes from the monthly IEA oil market report. The US EIA also used to report on OPEC spare capacity
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2012-06-12 ОПЕК: текущие данные http://iv-g.livejournal.com/689138.html