February 20th, 2013

Парламент Новой Зеландии, Research papers: The next oil shock?

October 2010



Oil discovered per new well is declining. In 17 years between 1963 and 1980, 15,000 wells found nearly 1.5 trillion barrels of oil. In 22 years between 1980 and 2002, 60,000 more wells found half as much new oil. It now takes approximately 10 wildcat wells on average to discover the same quantity of reserves as a single wildcat well would discover 50 years ago.

The diagram illustrates the world’s oil reserves, along with the average daily additions to and the consumption of those reserves.

On average, discoveries add 30 million barrels per day (mb/d) to proven reserves. Technological improvements, which mean that a higher percentage of the oil in reserves can be extracted than in the past add, another 25 mb/d. Discoveries and technological improvements are not enough to offset the drain on those reserves of 86 mb/d. Net reserves are decreasing by about 30 mb/d, meaning there is enough oil with current reserves, rate of production and rate of discovery to last about 80 years.



http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/ParlSupport/ResearchPapers/4/6/a/00PLEco10041-The-next-oil-shock.htm
http://www.parliament.nz/NR/rdonlyres/7BEC9297-DEBE-47B5-9A04-77617E2653B2/163251/Thenextoilshock3.pdf

obsrvr: Экономика Чили

Чилийские заметки. Ч.1
Чилийские заметки. Ч.2. Демография
Чилийские заметки. Ч.3. Общая экономическая картина

Чилийские заметки. Ч.4. Экономика виртуальная и реальная

Виртуальная экономика
Adjusted net national income (US dollar)

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chile/adjusted-net-national-income-us-dollar-wb-data.html

GDP per capita (US dollar)

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chile/gdp-per-capita-us-dollar-wb-data.html


Реальная экономика, отражаемая энергозатратами
Electricity production (kWh)

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chile/electricity-production-kwh-wb-data.html
Только после того, как набаловались с деньгами, начался - с 1977 какой-то рост реального сектора, отражаемый производством электроэнергии

The Energy use (kt of oil equivalent)

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chile/energy-use-kt-of-oil-equivalent-wb-data.html
Но в общем и целом картина с реальным сектором до 1987 г. была не ахти...

Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita)



http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chile/energy-use-kg-of-oil-equivalent-per-capita-wb-data.html
Реальный рост - с 1988 г.

Road sector energy consumption (kt of oil equivalent)

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chile/road-sector-energy-consumption-kt-of-oil-equivalent-wb-data.html
Еще один индикатор состояния реального сектора экономики - заметный рост только с 1987-1988 гг.
И нефтяной шок, если быть точным...

Mineral rents (% of GDP)
Mineral rents are the difference between the value of production for a stock of minerals at world prices and their total costs of production. Minerals included in the calculation are tin; gold; lead; zinc; iron; copper; nickel; silver; bauxite; and phosphate.



http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chile/mineral-rents-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html


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