March 31st, 2013

Usgs assessment: Undiscovered Conventional Resources of the Arabian Peninsula and Zagros, 2012

Assessment of Undiscovered Conventional Oil and Gas Resources of the Arabian Peninsula and Zagros Fold Belt, 2012

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated means
of 86 billion barrels of oil and 336 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered natural gas resources in
the Arabian Peninsula and Zagros Fold Belt.

Twenty-three assessment units within seven petroleum systems were quantitatively assessed in this study, which represents a reassessment of this area last published in 2000 (U.S. Geological Survey World Energy Assessment Team, 2000) (fig. 1).

The seven TPSs and the main geologic elements used to define them are as follows: (1) Huqf–Paleozoic TPS―petroleum generated from Precambrian–Cambrian shales of the Huqf Supergroup in three Oman basins; (2) Paleozoic Composite TPS―petroleum generated from Silurian (and possibly Ordovician) marine source rocks over much of the Arabian Peninsula; (3) Paleozoic–Mesozoic Composite TPS includes the Euphrates Graben of Syria in which petroleum from Triassic source rock is present in addition to that from Paleozoic source rocks; (4) Mesozoic Composite TPS―petroleum generated from synrift Triassic and other Mesozoic source rocks in the Palmyra and Sinjar areas; (5) Madbi–Amran–Qishn TPS of Yemen―petroleum generated from Upper Jurassic marine source rocks; (6) Middle Cretaceous Natih TPS―petroleum from the Natih Formation trapped in the Fahud Salt Basin of Oman; and (7) Mesozoic–Cenozoic Composite TPS―
petroleum generated from Middle and Upper Jurassic and Lower and Upper Cretaceous source marine rocks over a wide area of the eastern Arabian Peninsula and Zagros. The 23 AUs that were defined geologically and assessed within these TPS are listed in table 1.

The USGS assessed undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in 23 AUs within seven petroleum systems, with the following estimated mean totals: (1) for conventional oil resources, 85,856 million barrels of oil (MMBO), with a range from 34,006 to 161,651 MMBO; (2) for undiscovered conventional gas, 336,194 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFG), with a range from 131,488 to 657,939 BCFG; and (3) for natural gas liquids (NGL), 11,972 MMBNGL, with a range from 4,513 to 24,788 MMBNGL (table 1).

Of the mean undiscovered conventional oil resource of 85,856 MMBO, about 92 percent (78,747 MMBO) is estimated to be in six AUs within the Mesozoic–Cenozoic Composite Total Petroleum System (fig. 1B); most of this oil is estimated to be in the Zagros Fold Belt Structures AU (mean of 38,464 MMBO), the Mesopotamian Basin Anticlines AU (mean of 26,856 MMBO), the Arabian Platform Structures AU (mean of 6,626 MMBO), and the Horst Block and Suprasalt Structural Oil AU (mean of 5,300 MMBO).

For the undiscovered conventional gas resource mean of 336,194 BCFG, 96 percent is in two total petroleum systems: Paleozoic Composite TPS (mean of 189,273 BCFG) and the Mesozoic–Cenozoic Composite TPS (mean of 132,876 BCFG). In the Paleozoic Composite TPS, 56 percent (106,180 BCFG) of the undiscovered gas is estimated to be in the Zagros Fold Belt Reservoirs AU (table 1).

Similarly, 64 percent (85,610 BCFG) of the undiscovered gas in the Mesozoic–Cenozoic Composite TPS is in the Zagros Fold Belt Structures AU.

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conventional oil resources
Среднее 85,856 million barrels of oil (MMBO) = 11.7 млрд. т
range 34,006-161,651 = 4.64 - 22.05 млрд. т

conventional gas
336,194 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFG) = 9.4 трлн. м3
range 131,488-657,939 = 3.7 - 18.4 трлн. м3

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BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012

нефти 765 млрд.барр = 104 млрд. т
газа 80 трлн. м3

Отношение средних неоткрытых ресурсов к известным запасам
нефть = 11.7/104 =11.3%
газ = 9.4/80 = 11.8%

Почти все открыто. Если использовать более скептичный подход и разделить на 3 неоткрытые ресурсы, то получается 3.8-3.9% от известных запасов.